Brazil Presidential Election Second Round 2026: 1st Place in Amapá

2 outcomes · Voting day: Sun, Oct 25, 2026 (in 18 days) · Use widget

Outcome	Probability	24h change
Flávio Bolsonaro	78%	▲6 pts
Lula	18%	▼7 pts

Key questions

When is the vote?

Sunday, October 25, 2026 (in 18 days).

Who is expected to win?

Flávio Bolsonaro, with a market-implied probability of 78%, ahead of Lula at 18%. Updated 2026-10-07 16:42 UTC.

What do these percentages mean?

The percentages on electiontracker.eu are market-implied probabilities: how likely each outcome is, as priced by prediction markets. They are not polls and not our forecast, and they are refreshed every few minutes.

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Brazil Presidential Election Second Round 2026: 1st Place in Amapá – Flávio Bolsonaro, with a market-implied probability of 78%, ahead of Lula at 18%. Source: electiontracker.eu, October 7, 2026