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Texas Governor Election Winner 2026

2 outcomes · Voting day: Tue, Nov 3, 2026 (in 21 days)

79% chance to win Greg Abbott (R)

▲5 pts in 7 days

Probability

50%

Oct 2025Oct 2026

21% chance to win Gina Hinojosa (D)

▼4 pts in 7 days

Probability

50%

Oct 2025Oct 2026

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Outcome	Probability	24h change
Greg Abbott (R)	79%	▼1 pt
Gina Hinojosa (D)	21%	▼1 pt

Greg Abbott (R) 79%
Gina Hinojosa (D) 21%

100%50%0%

Oct 2025Apr 2026Oct 2026

Key questions

When is the vote?

Tuesday, November 3, 2026 (in 21 days).

Who is expected to win?

Greg Abbott (R), with a market-implied probability of 79%, ahead of Gina Hinojosa (D) at 21%. Updated 2026-10-13 16:48 UTC.

What do these percentages mean?

Greg Abbott (R) 79%

The percentages on electiontracker.eu are market-implied probabilities: how likely each outcome is, as priced by prediction markets. They are not polls and not our forecast, and they are refreshed every few minutes.

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Texas Governor Election 2026: Greg Abbott (R), with a market-implied probability of 79%, ahead of Gina Hinojosa (D)  at 21%. Source: electiontracker.eu, October 13, 2026