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Track record

Every election decided on this site so far, with the market-implied probability its winner had the day before the vote.

Elections decided: 30 · Favourite won: 26

ProbabilityFavourite won: Yes NoFavourite won
90% +16 / 16
70% – 90%5 / 6
50% – 70%3 / 6
< 50%2 / 2
Voting dayElectionWinnerProbabilityFavourite won
Tongatapu 2 By-Election WinnerAlvin Lafu Sika38%Yes
Ongo Niua 17 By-Election Winner'Aminiasi Tonga Pau'u Tangimana37%Yes
Quebec General Election WinnerPQ97%Yes
Brazil Presidential Election First Round WinnerFlávio Bolsonaro29%No
Serb Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina?Željka Cvijanović94%Yes
Brazil Senate Election: Most Seats WonPartido Liberal (PL)96%Yes
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Minas GeraisFlávio Bolsonaro31%No
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in TocantinsFlávio Bolsonaro43%No
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in AmazonasLula82%Yes
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in GoiásFlávio Bolsonaro95%Yes
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Rio de JaneiroFlávio Bolsonaro98%Yes
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in RondôniaFlávio Bolsonaro99%Yes
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Federal DistrictFlávio Bolsonaro97%Yes
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in CearáLula>99%Yes
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Rio Grande do SulFlávio Bolsonaro97%Yes
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in São PauloFlávio Bolsonaro97%Yes
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in ParáLula97%Yes
Croat President of Bosnia and Herzegovina?Darijana Filipović51%Yes
Brazil Senate Election: Most Seats HeldPartido Liberal (PL)96%Yes
Brazil Chamber of Deputies Election WinnerPartido Liberal (PL)71%Yes
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in ParaíbaLula99%Yes
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in AmapáLula68%Yes
Bosniak President of Bosnia and Herzegovina?Denis Bećirović81%Yes
Latvian Parliamentary Election WinnerApvienotais Saraksts (AS)99%Yes
Hannover Mayoral Election WinnerBelit Onay96%Yes
Morocco Legislative Elections: Party WinnerPAM86%Yes
Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?United Russia (ER)82%Yes
Russia Parliamentary Election WinnerUnited Russia (ER)>99%Yes
Berlin State Election WinnerLinke67%Yes
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election WinnerAfD50%No

The favourite is the outcome with the highest probability the day before the vote. A favourite at 70% should lose about three times in ten, so misses are expected, and a short list proves little.