Tongatapu 2 By-Election Winner 2026
9 outcomes · Voting day: (tomorrow)
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change |
|---|---|---|
| 'Ilaisa Lepolo Taunisila | 38% | ▲18 pts |
| Alvin Lafu Sika | 38% | ▲21 pts |
| Lei Paasi | 28% | ▲2 pts |
| Malakai Matafonuafo'ou 'Ofa ki Wakawaka Koloamatangi | 15% | 0 pts |
| Sione Harvard Tupouniua | 14% | 0 pts |
| Mele Teusivi 'Amanaki | 9% | ▼7 pts |
| 'Olioni Manoa | 8% | 0 pts |
| Samiuela Vea | 8% | 0 pts |
| Mounu Uaisele | 4% | ▲1 pt |
- 'Ilaisa Lepolo Taunisila 38%
- Alvin Lafu Sika 38%
- Lei Paasi 28%
100%50%0%
Sep 10Sep 23Oct 7
Key questions
When is the vote?
Thursday, October 8, 2026 (tomorrow).
Who is expected to win?
'Ilaisa Lepolo Taunisila, with a market-implied probability of 38%, ahead of Alvin Lafu Sika at 38%. Updated 2026-10-07 17:36 UTC.
What do these percentages mean?
The percentages on electiontracker.eu are market-implied probabilities: how likely each outcome is, as priced by prediction markets. They are not polls and not our forecast, and they are refreshed every few minutes.