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Alvin Lafu Sika: Tongatapu 2 By-Election Winner 2026?

Q: Alvin Lafu Sika: Tongatapu 2 By-Election Winner 2026?

Market-implied probability: 38%, as of 2026-10-07 16:15 UTC. Source: public prediction-market data.

38%Probability

1h change: –
24h change: ▲21 pts
1w change: ▲19 pts
Voting day: Thu, Oct 8, 2026 (tomorrow)

Alvin Lafu Sika 38%

100%50%0%

Sep 10Sep 23Oct 7

Other outcomes in this event

Outcome	Probability	24h change
Lei Paasi	40%	▲14 pts
'Ilaisa Lepolo Taunisila	38%	▲19 pts
Mounu Uaisele	37%	▲34 pts
Malakai Matafonuafo'ou 'Ofa ki Wakawaka Koloamatangi	15%	0 pts
Sione Harvard Tupouniua	14%	–
Mele Teusivi 'Amanaki	9%	▼7 pts
'Olioni Manoa	8%	0 pts
Samiuela Vea	8%	0 pts

All 9 outcomes

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<iframe src="https://electiontracker.eu/embed/tonga/tongatapu-2-by-election-2026" title="Tongatapu 2 By-Election Winner" width="100%" height="400" style="border:0;max-width:640px" loading="lazy"></iframe>
<script src="https://electiontracker.eu/embed.js" async></script>

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Alvin Lafu Sika: Tongatapu 2 By-Election Winner 2026?

Other outcomes in this event

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