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Ongo Niua 17 By-Election Winner 2026

5 outcomes · Voting day: (tomorrow)

37% chance to win 'Aminiasi Tonga Pau'u Tangimana

▼4 pts in 7 days

Probability

50%
Sep 10Oct 7

32% chance to win Paea 'i Vaha Filimoehala

▲8 pts in 7 days

Probability

50%
Sep 10Oct 7

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OutcomeProbability24h change
'Aminiasi Tonga Pau'u Tangimana37%▼2 pts
Paea 'i Vaha Filimoehala32%▲8 pts
Sitiveni Selui19%▲1 pt
Sione Tuifio Hui11%▲1 pt
'Aisake Hoatatau Finau6%▼25 pts
  1. 'Aminiasi Tonga Pau'u Tangimana 37%
  2. Paea 'i Vaha Filimoehala 32%
  3. Sitiveni Selui 19%
100%50%0%

Sep 10Sep 23Oct 7

Key questions

When is the vote?

Thursday, October 8, 2026 (tomorrow).

Who is expected to win?

'Aminiasi Tonga Pau'u Tangimana, with a market-implied probability of 37%, ahead of Paea 'i Vaha Filimoehala at 32%. Updated 2026-10-07 16:36 UTC.

What do these percentages mean?

The percentages on electiontracker.eu are market-implied probabilities: how likely each outcome is, as priced by prediction markets. They are not polls and not our forecast, and they are refreshed every few minutes.

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