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繁體中文Brazil Presidential Election First Round 2026: 1st Place in Amapá
13 outcomes · Voting day: (3 days ago) · Use widget
Awaiting the official result. Lula, with a market-implied probability of 99%, ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro at 1%.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change |
|---|---|---|
| Lula | 99% | 0 pts |
| Flávio Bolsonaro | 1% | 0 pts |
| Clariana Barao Resolved | 0% | – |
| Edmilson Costa Resolved | 0% | – |
| Escritor Augusto Cury Resolved | 0% | – |
| Hertz Dias Resolved | 0% | – |
| Pablo Marçal Resolved | 0% | – |
| Renan Santos Resolved | 0% | – |
| Ronaldo Caiado Resolved | 0% | – |
| Rui Costa Pimenta Resolved | 0% | – |
| Samara Resolved | 0% | – |
| Veterinário Wilson Grassi Resolved | 0% | – |
| Zema Resolved | 0% | – |
- Lula 99%
100%50%0%
Aug 18Sep 12Oct 7
Key questions
When is the vote?
Sunday, October 4, 2026 (3 days ago).
Who is expected to win?
Lula, with a market-implied probability of 99%, ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro at 1%. Updated 2026-10-07 13:52 UTC.
What do these percentages mean?
The percentages on electiontracker.eu are market-implied probabilities: how likely each outcome is, as priced by prediction markets. They are not polls and not our forecast, and they are refreshed every few minutes.