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Who will receive the first mandate to form Israel's the government?

19 outcomes · Voting day: (today)

Live

79% chance Gadi Eizenkot

▲17 pts in 7 days

Probability

50%
Oct 20Oct 27

19% chance Benjamin Netanyahu

▼14 pts in 7 days

Probability

50%
Oct 21Oct 27

Use widget

@electiontracker.eu

OutcomeProbability24h change
Gadi EizenkotCentre79%▲11 pts
Benjamin NetanyahuRight19%▼12 pts
Naftali BennettRight4%▲2 pts
Yair LapidCentre<1%–
Avigdor LiebermanRight<1%–
Benny GantzCentre<1%–
Yossi Cohen<1%–
Yair GolanCentre-left<1%–
Itamar Ben GvirFar right<1%–
Gideon Sa’arRight<1%–
Yariv LevinRight<1%–
Moshe FeiglinRight<1%–
Ayelet ShakedRight<1%–
Yoaz HendelCentre-right<1%–
Israel KatzRight<1%–
Nir BarkatRight<1%–
Amir OhanaRight<1%–
Gilad ErdanRight<1%–
Ofer Winter<1%–
  1. Gadi Eizenkot 79%
  2. Benjamin Netanyahu 19%
100%50%0%

Oct 20Oct 23Oct 27

Key questions

When is the vote?

Tuesday, October 27, 2026 (today).

Who is expected to win?

Gadi Eizenkot, with a market-implied probability of 79%, ahead of Benjamin Netanyahu at 19%. Updated 2026-10-27 13:35 UTC.

What do these percentages mean?

Gadi Eizenkot 79%

The percentages on electiontracker.eu are market-implied probabilities: how likely each outcome is, as priced by prediction markets. They are not polls and not our forecast, and they are refreshed every few minutes.

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  2. Israeli Legislative Election Winner Yashar 78%
  3. Israeli Minister of Defense? No Next Minister by Feb 28 42%
  4. Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs? No Next Minister by Feb 28 38%
  5. Israeli Minister of Justice? No Next Minister by Feb 28 41%
  6. Israeli Minister of Finance? No Next Minister by Feb 28 42%
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