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French Presidential Election First Round Winner 2027

16 outcomes · Voting day: (in 173 days)

84% chance to win Marine Le Pen

▼2 pts in 7 days

Probability

50%
Oct 13Oct 27

6% chance to win Jean-Luc Mélenchon

▼2 pts in 7 days

Probability

50%
Oct 14Oct 27

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OutcomeProbability24h change
Marine Le PenFar right84%▲2 pts
Jean-Luc MélenchonLeft6%▲3 pts
Jordan BardellaFar right4%▲3 pts
David LisnardCentre-right4%▼1 pt
Édouard PhilippeCentre-right4%▲1 pt
Raphaël GlucksmannCentre-left2%–
François HollandeCentre-left1%–
Bruno RetailleauCentre-right1%–
Dominique de VillepinCentre-right1%–
Sébastien LecornuCentre-right1%–
François RuffinLeft1%0 pts
Gabriel AttalCentre<1%–
Sarah KnafoFar right<1%–
Christine LagardeCentre-right<1%–
Éric ZemmourFar right<1%–
Marine TondelierCentre-left<1%–
  1. Marine Le Pen 84%
  2. Jean-Luc Mélenchon 6%
100%50%0%

Oct 13Oct 20Oct 27

Key questions

When is the vote?

Sunday, April 18, 2027 (in 173 days).

Who is expected to win?

Marine Le Pen, with a market-implied probability of 84%, ahead of Jean-Luc Mélenchon at 6%. Updated 2026-10-27 13:35 UTC.

What do these percentages mean?

Marine Le Pen 84%

The percentages on electiontracker.eu are market-implied probabilities: how likely each outcome is, as priced by prediction markets. They are not polls and not our forecast, and they are refreshed every few minutes.

Related races

  1. French Presidential Election Marine Le Pen 45%
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