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繁體中文French Presidential Election 2027
42 outcomes · Closes
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change |
|---|---|---|
| Marine Le Pen | 43% | ▲1 pt |
| Édouard Philippe | 18% | – |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 13% | – |
| David Lisnard | 12% | ▼1 pt |
| François Hollande | 3% | ▼1 pt |
| Gabriel Attal | 3% | ▲1 pt |
| Bruno Retailleau | 1% | 0 pts |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 1% | – |
| Sarah Knafo | 1% | – |
| Éric Zemmour | 1% | 0 pts |
| Jordan Bardella | 1% | – |
| Dominique de Villepin | 1% | 0 pts |
| Christine Lagarde | 1% | 0 pts |
| Ségolène Royal | <1% | 0 pts |
| Sébastien Lecornu | <1% | – |
| Karim Bouamrane | <1% | – |
| Olivier Faure | <1% | 0 pts |
| François Ruffin | <1% | – |
| Marine Tondelier | <1% | – |
| François Asselineau | <1% | 0 pts |
| Yaël Braun-Pivet | <1% | – |
| Bernard Cazeneuve | <1% | – |
| Jean Castex | <1% | 0 pts |
| Xavier Bertrand | <1% | – |
| François Baroin | <1% | – |
| Carole Delga | <1% | – |
| Laurent Wauquiez | <1% | – |
| Fabien Roussel | <1% | – |
| Clémentine Autain | <1% | – |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | <1% | – |
| Michel Barnier | <1% | – |
| Valérie Pécresse | <1% | – |
| François Bayrou | <1% | – |
| Élisabeth Borne | <1% | – |
| Gérald Darmanin | <1% | – |
| Manuel Bompard | <1% | – |
| Mathilde Panot | <1% | – |
| Juan Branco | <1% | – |
| Clémence Guetté | <1% | – |
| Lucie Castets | <1% | – |
| Yannick Jadot | <1% | – |
| Marion Maréchal | <1% | – |
- Marine Le Pen 43%
- Édouard Philippe 18%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon 13%
100%50%0%
Nov 2025Apr 2026Oct 2026
Latest news
- The Parti animaliste presented its co-founder Mira Markovic as its candidate for the 2027 presidential election. CNews
- The five candidates in the Socialist-led primary debated on France 2 and France Inter, a week before the first round of voting. franceinfo
- Former minister Olivier Becht, a Haut-Rhin deputy, announced his candidacy for the presidential election. CNews
- The five candidates in the Socialist-led primary met in their first televised debate, broadcast on LCI. LCP
- The Ecologists' federal council voted to let members decide on 10-13 December between a Marine Tondelier candidacy and backing another candidate. LCP
- Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, leader of Debout la France, made his presidential candidacy official at a rally in Yerres. CNews
- Éric Zemmour, leader of Reconquête, announced on BFMTV that he will be a candidate in the 2027 presidential election. LCP
- Five candidates were confirmed for the PS-Place publique primary: Faure, Glucksmann, Guedj, Maurel and Royal; voting is set for 9-10 and 16-17 October. France 24
Summarised automatically from the linked sources.
Key questions
Who is expected to win?
Marine Le Pen, with a market-implied probability of 43%, ahead of Édouard Philippe at 18%. Updated 2026-10-07 14:33 UTC.
What do these percentages mean?
The percentages on electiontracker.eu are market-implied probabilities: how likely each outcome is, as priced by prediction markets. They are not polls and not our forecast, and they are refreshed every few minutes.