Election TrackerHow it worksFor newsrooms

Home › Australia

Launceston Mayoral Election Winner 2026

5 outcomes · Voting day: (in 20 days)

59% chance to win Matthew Garwood

▼8 pts in 7 days

Probability

50%
Sep 4Oct 7

24% chance to win Kyle Barrett

▲3 pts in 7 days

Probability

50%
Sep 5Oct 7

Use widget

OutcomeProbability24h change
Matthew Garwood59%▲2 pts
Kyle Barrett24%▲4 pts
Rose Diamond4%0 pts
Tim Walker2%▼1 pt
Paul Mallett2%0 pts
  1. Matthew Garwood 59%
  2. Kyle Barrett 24%
100%50%0%

Sep 4Sep 20Oct 7

Key questions

When is the vote?

Tuesday, October 27, 2026 (in 20 days).

Who is expected to win?

Matthew Garwood, with a market-implied probability of 59%, ahead of Kyle Barrett at 24%. Updated 2026-10-07 15:35 UTC.

What do these percentages mean?

The percentages on electiontracker.eu are market-implied probabilities: how likely each outcome is, as priced by prediction markets. They are not polls and not our forecast, and they are refreshed every few minutes.

Related races

  1. Huon Valley Mayoral Election Winner Mark Jessop 33%
  2. Waratah–Wynyard Mayoral Election Winner Chloe Foster 48%
  3. Clarence Mayoral Election Winner Brendan Blomeley 74%
  4. Latrobe Mayoral Election Winner Brett Whiteley 59%
  5. Hobart Lord Mayor Election Winner John Kelly 41%
  6. Northern Midlands Mayoral Election Winner Andrew McCullagh 47%
Embed this widget

Paste this code into an article or page. The widget updates by itself: the market-implied probability before the vote, live on election night, then the official result.

Preview

More widgets and options for newsrooms →

Quote these figures

You are welcome to embed Election Tracker widgets and to quote individual figures, with credit and a link to electiontracker.eu. Copying the data in bulk (scraping, feeds, databases) or reselling it is not permitted. © Eastern Vikings OÜ.