Hobart Lord Mayor Election Winner 2026
7 outcomes · Voting day: (in 20 days)
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change |
|---|---|---|
| John Kelly | 41% | ▼3 pts |
| Louise Bloomfield | 15% | ▲1 pt |
| Ryan Posselt | 13% | ▼1 pt |
| Bill Harvey | 11% | ▲5 pts |
| Marti Zucco | 5% | 0 pts |
| Mike Dutta | 1% | 0 pts |
| Harvey Lennon | <1% | – |
- John Kelly 41%
- Louise Bloomfield 15%
- Ryan Posselt 13%
100%50%0%
Sep 4Sep 20Oct 7
Key questions
When is the vote?
Tuesday, October 27, 2026 (in 20 days).
Who is expected to win?
John Kelly, with a market-implied probability of 41%, ahead of Louise Bloomfield at 15%. Updated 2026-10-07 14:33 UTC.
What do these percentages mean?
The percentages on electiontracker.eu are market-implied probabilities: how likely each outcome is, as priced by prediction markets. They are not polls and not our forecast, and they are refreshed every few minutes.