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繁體中文Which coalition will form the Romanian government?
32 outcomes · Closes
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change |
|---|---|---|
| PSD + PNL + UDMR | 15% | ▼3 pts |
| PSD + UDMR | 13% | ▲1 pt |
| PSD | 13% | ▲6 pts |
| Other | 6% | ▼1 pt |
| PSD + PNL | 5% | 0 pts |
| PSD + PNL + USR | 5% | 0 pts |
| AUR | 5% | 0 pts |
| PNL + USR | 4% | 0 pts |
| PSD + USR + UDMR | 4% | 0 pts |
| PSD + PNL + USR + UDMR + AUR | 4% | – |
| PNL | 4% | 0 pts |
| PSD + PNL + AUR | 4% | 0 pts |
| PNL + USR + UDMR | 4% | ▼1 pt |
| PSD + PNL + USR + UDMR | 3% | – |
| PSD + USR + UDMR + AUR | 3% | – |
| PSD + PNL + USR + AUR | 2% | 0 pts |
| UDMR | 2% | 0 pts |
| PSD + USR | 2% | – |
| PNL + UDMR | 2% | – |
| UDMR + AUR | 2% | – |
| PSD + AUR | 2% | – |
| PNL + AUR | 1% | – |
| PNL + UDMR + AUR | 1% | 0 pts |
| USR | 1% | 0 pts |
| PSD + UDMR + AUR | 1% | – |
| PNL + USR + UDMR + AUR | 1% | – |
| USR + UDMR + AUR | 1% | – |
| PSD + PNL + UDMR + AUR | 1% | – |
| PNL + USR + AUR | 1% | – |
| USR + AUR | 1% | – |
| PSD + USR + AUR | 1% | – |
| USR + UDMR | <1% | 0 pts |
- PSD + PNL + UDMR 15%
- PSD + UDMR 13%
- PSD 13%
100%50%0%
May 2026Jul 2026Oct 2026
Key questions
Who is expected to win?
PSD + PNL + UDMR, with a market-implied probability of 15%, ahead of PSD + UDMR at 13%. Updated 2026-10-07 13:52 UTC.
What do these percentages mean?
The percentages on electiontracker.eu are market-implied probabilities: how likely each outcome is, as priced by prediction markets. They are not polls and not our forecast, and they are refreshed every few minutes.