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Which parties will be part of the government of Romania?

6 outcomes · Closes

69% chance PSD

▲13 pts in 7 days

Probability

50%
May 2026Oct 2026

42% chance PNL

▲5 pts in 7 days

Probability

50%
May 2026Oct 2026

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OutcomeProbability24h change
PSD69%▼12 pts
PNL42%–
UDMR28%▲1 pt
USR20%▼1 pt
Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR)9%▼1 pt
SOS2%0 pts
  1. PSD 69%
  2. PNL 42%
  3. UDMR 28%
100%50%0%

May 2026Jul 2026Oct 2026

Key questions

Who is expected to win?

PSD, with a market-implied probability of 69%, ahead of PNL at 42%. Updated 2026-10-07 13:52 UTC.

What do these percentages mean?

The percentages on electiontracker.eu are market-implied probabilities: how likely each outcome is, as priced by prediction markets. They are not polls and not our forecast, and they are refreshed every few minutes.

Related races

  1. Prime Minister of Romania? Luca Niculescu 60%
  2. Party of the Prime Minister of Romania? Independent/Technocrat 82%
  3. Which coalition will form the Romanian government? PSD + PNL + UDMR 15%
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