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Pennsylvania Governor Election Winner 2026

2 outcomes · Voting day: Tue, Nov 3, 2026 (in 21 days)

98% chance to win Josh Shapiro (D)

▲1 pt in 7 days

Probability

50%

Oct 2025Oct 2026

2% chance to win Stacy Garrity (R)

▼1 pt in 7 days

Probability

50%

Oct 2025Oct 2026

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Outcome	Probability	24h change
Josh Shapiro (D)	98%	0 pts
Stacy Garrity (R)	2%	0 pts

Josh Shapiro (D) 98%

100%50%0%

Oct 2025Apr 2026Oct 2026

Key questions

When is the vote?

Tuesday, November 3, 2026 (in 21 days).

Who is expected to win?

Josh Shapiro (D), with a market-implied probability of 98%, ahead of Stacy Garrity (R) at 2%. Updated 2026-10-13 23:10 UTC.

What do these percentages mean?

Josh Shapiro (D) 98%

The percentages on electiontracker.eu are market-implied probabilities: how likely each outcome is, as priced by prediction markets. They are not polls and not our forecast, and they are refreshed every few minutes.

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Pennsylvania Governor Election 2026: Josh Shapiro (D), with a market-implied probability of 98%, ahead of Stacy Garrity (R) at 2%. Source: electiontracker.eu, October 13, 2026