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Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winner 2026

23 outcomes · Closes · Use widget

Awaiting the official result. Amal Movement (Amal), with a market-implied probability of 1%, ahead of Lebanese Forces (LF) at <1%.

OutcomeProbability24h change
Amal Movement (Amal)1%–
Lebanese Forces (LF)<1%–
Hezbollah (Hezb)<1%–
Free Patriotic Movement (FPM)<1%–
Progressive Socialist Party (PSP)<1%–
Kataeb Party (Kataeb)<1%–
Armenian Revolutionary Federation (ARF)<1%–
Marada Movement (MM)<1%–
Independence Movement (IM)<1%–
Taqaddom Party<1%–
Islamic Charitable Projects Association (ICPA)<1%–
Islamic Group (IG)<1%–
Union Party (UP)<1%–
Arab Socialist Ba'ath Party in Lebanon (Ba'ath)<1%–
National Liberal Party (NLP)<1%–
Lana – Social Democratic Party (Lana)<1%–
Mada Party (Mada)<1%–
Khatt Ahmar<1%–
Popular Nasserist Organization (PNO)<1%–
National Dialogue Party (NDP)<1%–
Dignity Movement (DM)<1%–
Watani Alliance (Watani)<1%–
ReLebanon<1%–

Key questions

Who is expected to win?

Amal Movement (Amal), with a market-implied probability of 1%, ahead of Lebanese Forces (LF) at <1%. Updated 2026-10-07 15:35 UTC.

What do these percentages mean?

The percentages on electiontracker.eu are market-implied probabilities: how likely each outcome is, as priced by prediction markets. They are not polls and not our forecast, and they are refreshed every few minutes.

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