Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: Presidential Election Winner 2028?

Market-implied probability: 13%, as of 2026-10-07 15:35 UTC. Source: public prediction-market data.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, born in 1989, is an American Democrat who has represented New York's 14th congressional district in the US House of Representatives since 2019.

Born: 1989 (36 years), Parkchester
Party: Democratic Party
Office: United States representative 2019–
Education: Boston University College of Arts and Sciences, Boston University
Website: ocasio-cortez.house.gov

Political position

Left · Where sources place this person
Wikipedia places her platform on the party's progressive left; no explicit label given
Ideology: progressivism, democratic socialism, social democracy

13%Probability · Presidential Election Winner 2028

1h change: –
24h change: ▼2 pts
1w change: –
Voting day: Tue, Nov 7, 2028 (in 762 days)

She is a member of the party's progressive wing. She is named in the market on the winner of the 2028 US presidential election.

Career

Ocasio-Cortez won the 2018 Democratic primary with 56.7% against incumbent Joe Crowley and the general election with 78%. She was re-elected in 2020, 2022 and 2024 and won her 2026 primary with 30,189 votes. In March 2025 several House Democrats, including Ro Khanna, urged her to challenge Senator Chuck Schumer in the 2028 Democratic primary for the Senate.

Positions

Wikipedia lists her platform as Medicare for All, tuition-free public colleges, a jobs guarantee, a Green New Deal and abolishing ICE. She introduced the Green New Deal resolution in February 2019 together with Senator Ed Markey.

Summarised automatically from the linked sources. Wikipedia

Photo: Franmarie Metzler; U.S. House Office of Photography, Public domain, Wikimedia Commons (cropped)

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 13%

100%50%0%

Jul 2025Feb 2026Oct 2026

Presidential Election Winner 2028

Outcome	Left – Right	Age	Probability
JD Vance			20%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	Left	36	13%
Jon Ossoff	Centre-left	39	10%
Gavin Newsom	Centre-left	58	8%
Marco Rubio	Right	55	6%
Kamala Harris			4%
Josh Shapiro	Centre-left	53	3%
Ron DeSantis	Right	48	3%
Pete Buttigieg	Centre-left	44	3%
Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson		54	2%
Tucker Carlson	Right	57	2%
Andy Beshear		48	2%

All 54 outcomes

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