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Baja California Sur Governor Election Winner 2027

16 outcomes · Voting day: (in 236 days)

55% chance to win Manuel Cota Cárdenas

▼18 pts in 7 days

Probability

50%
Aug 6Oct 13

19% chance to win Francisco Pelayo Covarrubias

▼1 pt in 7 days

Probability

50%
Aug 6Oct 13

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OutcomeProbability24h change
Manuel Cota Cárdenas55%▲5 pts
Francisco Pelayo Covarrubias19%▼2 pts
Christian Agúndez Gómez7%▲1 pt
Milena Quiroga Romero4%▼2 pts
José Rigoberto Mares Aguilar1%0 pts
Ricardo Barroso Agramont<1%–
Jesús Alberto Alvarado Aragón<1%–
Susana Zataraín García<1%–
Edith Aguilar Villavicencio<1%0 pts
Antonio Manríquez<1%–
Fabricio del Castillo<1%–
Guadalupe Saldaña Cisneros<1%–
José Saúl González Núñez<1%–
Diana Von Borstel Luna<1%–
Juan Alberto Valdivia Alvarado<1%–
Roxana Higuera<1%–
  1. Manuel Cota Cárdenas 55%
  2. Francisco Pelayo Covarrubias 19%
  3. Christian Agúndez Gómez 7%
100%50%0%

Aug 6Sep 9Oct 13

Key questions

When is the vote?

Sunday, June 6, 2027 (in 236 days).

Who is expected to win?

Manuel Cota Cárdenas, with a market-implied probability of 55%, ahead of Francisco Pelayo Covarrubias at 19%. Updated 2026-10-13 15:51 UTC.

What do these percentages mean?

Manuel Cota Cárdenas 55%

The percentages on electiontracker.eu are market-implied probabilities: how likely each outcome is, as priced by prediction markets. They are not polls and not our forecast, and they are refreshed every few minutes.

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