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Rio Grande do Norte Governor Election Winner 2026

9 outcomes · Voting day: (in 12 days)

Official results: TSE

84% chance to win Allyson

▼6 pts in 7 days

Probability

50%
Aug 18Oct 13

16% chance to win Cadu de Lula

▲6 pts in 7 days

Probability

50%
Aug 18Oct 13

Use widget

OutcomeProbability24h change
Allyson84%▲1 pt
Cadu de Lula16%–
Álvaro Dias<1%–
Arinalda do MLB<1%–
Carlos Jararaca<1%–
Dário Barbosa<1%–
Henrique Lyra<1%–
Professor Robério Paulino<1%–
Rodrigo Bolsonaro<1%–
  1. Allyson 84%
  2. Cadu de Lula 16%
100%50%0%

Aug 18Sep 15Oct 13

Key questions

When is the vote?

Sunday, October 25, 2026 (in 12 days).

Who is expected to win?

Allyson, with a market-implied probability of 84%, ahead of Cadu de Lula at 16%. Updated 2026-10-13 16:12 UTC.

What do these percentages mean?

Allyson 84%

The percentages on electiontracker.eu are market-implied probabilities: how likely each outcome is, as priced by prediction markets. They are not polls and not our forecast, and they are refreshed every few minutes.

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