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Espírito Santo Governor Election Winner 2026

5 outcomes · Voting day: (in 12 days)

Official results: TSE

95% chance to win Lorenzo Pazolini

▲7 pts in 7 days

Probability

50%
Jun 2026Oct 2026

4% chance to win Ricardo Ferraço

▼9 pts in 7 days

Probability

50%
Jun 2026Oct 2026

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OutcomeProbability24h change
Lorenzo Pazolini95%–
Ricardo Ferraço4%0 pts
Sérgio Vidigal<1%–
Arnaldinho Borgo<1%–
Euclério Sampaio<1%–
  1. Lorenzo Pazolini 95%
100%50%0%

Jun 2026Aug 2026Oct 2026

Key questions

When is the vote?

Sunday, October 25, 2026 (in 12 days).

Who is expected to win?

Lorenzo Pazolini, with a market-implied probability of 95%, ahead of Ricardo Ferraço at 4%. Updated 2026-10-13 23:00 UTC.

What do these percentages mean?

Lorenzo Pazolini 95%

The percentages on electiontracker.eu are market-implied probabilities: how likely each outcome is, as priced by prediction markets. They are not polls and not our forecast, and they are refreshed every few minutes.

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