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Which parties will be in the Swedish Government?

9 outcomes · Voting day: (24 days ago)

77% chance Swedish Social Democratic Party (S)

0 pts in 7 days

Probability

50%
Aug 21Oct 7

46% chance Centre Party (C)

▼4 pts in 7 days

Probability

50%
Aug 20Oct 7

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OutcomeProbability24h change
Swedish Social Democratic Party (S)77%0 pts
Centre Party (C)46%▼9 pts
Green Party (MP)45%▼26 pts
Left Party (V)24%–
Moderate Party (M)20%▲1 pt
Christian Democrats (KD)20%▼1 pt
Liberals (L)19%▼1 pt
Sweden Democrats (SD)8%0 pts
Citizens' Coalition (MED)<1%0 pts
  1. Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) 77%
  2. Centre Party (C) 46%
  3. Green Party (MP) 45%
100%50%0%

Aug 20Sep 13Oct 7

Key questions

When is the vote?

Sunday, September 13, 2026 (24 days ago).

Who is expected to win?

Swedish Social Democratic Party (S), with a market-implied probability of 77%, ahead of Centre Party (C) at 46%. Updated 2026-10-07 16:42 UTC.

What do these percentages mean?

The percentages on electiontracker.eu are market-implied probabilities: how likely each outcome is, as priced by prediction markets. They are not polls and not our forecast, and they are refreshed every few minutes.

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  4. Regional Board Chair of Gävleborg? Eva Lindberg 91%
  5. Regional Board Chair of Östergötland? Mattias Ottosson 77%
  6. Regional Board Chair of Värmland? Åsa Johansson 93%
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