العربية
Čeština
Dansk
Deutsch
Ελληνικά
Español
فارسی
Français
עברית
Magyar
Bahasa Indonesia
Italiano
日本語
한국어
Lietuvių
Nederlands
Polski
Português (Portugal)
Português (Brasil)
Română
Русский
Slovenčina
Türkçe
Українська
繁體中文Holborn and St Pancras By-Election Winner 2027
23 outcomes · Closes
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change |
|---|---|---|
| Sagal Abdi-Wali | 96% | ▲2 pts |
| Zack Polanski | 3% | ▼2 pts |
| Pat Callaghan | <1% | – |
| Adam Harrison | <1% | – |
| Richard Olszewski | <1% | – |
| Sarah Hayward | <1% | – |
| Tricia Leman | <1% | – |
| Georgia Gould | <1% | – |
| Lorna Jane Russell | <1% | – |
| David Stansell | <1% | – |
| Hamza Chowdhury | <1% | – |
| Jim Monahan | <1% | – |
| James White | <1% | – |
| Siân Berry | <1% | – |
| Charlie Clinton | <1% | – |
| Luisa Porritt | <1% | – |
| Keith Moffitt | <1% | – |
| Mehreen Malik | <1% | – |
| Gio Spinella | <1% | – |
| Oliver Cooper | <1% | – |
| David Roberts | <1% | – |
| Sarah Pochin | <1% | – |
| Andrew Feinstein | <1% | – |
- Sagal Abdi-Wali 96%
100%50%0%
Sep 2Sep 19Oct 7
Key questions
Who is expected to win?
Sagal Abdi-Wali, with a market-implied probability of 96%, ahead of Zack Polanski at 3%. Updated 2026-10-07 16:42 UTC.
What do these percentages mean?
The percentages on electiontracker.eu are market-implied probabilities: how likely each outcome is, as priced by prediction markets. They are not polls and not our forecast, and they are refreshed every few minutes.