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繁體中文Which coalition will form the Swedish government?
21 outcomes · Voting day: (24 days ago)
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change |
|---|---|---|
| S + MP | 24% | – |
| S | 20% | – |
| S + MP + C + V | 16% | ▼6 pts |
| S + MP + C | 11% | – |
| M + KD + L + C | 10% | 0 pts |
| M + KD + L + SD | 7% | ▼1 pt |
| S + MP + V | 5% | 0 pts |
| M + KD + L | 5% | 0 pts |
| Other | 4% | 0 pts |
| S + MP + C + L | 2% | – |
| S + C | 1% | – |
| S + MP + C + KD | <1% | 0 pts |
| M + KD + SD | <1% | 0 pts |
| S + M | <1% | 0 pts |
| S + C + L | <1% | – |
| M | <1% | 0 pts |
| S + MP + L | <1% | – |
| M + KD | <1% | – |
| M + SD | <1% | – |
| S + C + V | <1% | – |
| S + V | <1% | – |
- S + MP 24%
- S 20%
- S + MP + C + V 16%
100%50%0%
Sep 15Sep 26Oct 7
Key questions
When is the vote?
Sunday, September 13, 2026 (24 days ago).
Who is expected to win?
S + MP, with a market-implied probability of 24%, ahead of S at 20%. Updated 2026-10-07 13:52 UTC.
What do these percentages mean?
The percentages on electiontracker.eu are market-implied probabilities: how likely each outcome is, as priced by prediction markets. They are not polls and not our forecast, and they are refreshed every few minutes.