Which parties will be in the Berlin state government?
8 outcomes · Voting day: (17 days ago)
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change |
|---|---|---|
| Grüne | 93% | ▲2 pts |
| SPD | 86% | ▼4 pts |
| Linke | 68% | ▲16 pts |
| CDU | 22% | – |
| BSW | 4% | ▼1 pt |
| FDP | 3% | – |
| AfD | 2% | – |
| FW | 2% | – |
- Grüne 93%
- SPD 86%
- Linke 68%
100%50%0%
Aug 21Sep 13Oct 7
Key questions
When is the vote?
Sunday, September 20, 2026 (17 days ago).
Who is expected to win?
Grüne, with a market-implied probability of 93%, ahead of SPD at 86%. Updated 2026-10-07 17:41 UTC.
What do these percentages mean?
The percentages on electiontracker.eu are market-implied probabilities: how likely each outcome is, as priced by prediction markets. They are not polls and not our forecast, and they are refreshed every few minutes.