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Governing Mayor of Berlin?

5 outcomes · Voting day: (17 days ago)

79% chance to win Elif Eralp

▼2 pts in 7 days

Probability

50%
Aug 13Oct 7

20% chance to win Stefan Evers

▲11 pts in 7 days

Probability

50%
Aug 12Oct 7

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OutcomeProbability24h change
Elif Eralp79%▲2 pts
Stefan Evers20%▲1 pt
Werner Graf2%▲1 pt
Steffen Krach<1%0 pts
Kristin Brinker<1%–
  1. Elif Eralp 79%
  2. Stefan Evers 20%
100%50%0%

Aug 12Sep 9Oct 7

Key questions

When is the vote?

Sunday, September 20, 2026 (17 days ago).

Who is expected to win?

Elif Eralp, with a market-implied probability of 79%, ahead of Stefan Evers at 20%. Updated 2026-10-07 15:35 UTC.

What do these percentages mean?

The percentages on electiontracker.eu are market-implied probabilities: how likely each outcome is, as priced by prediction markets. They are not polls and not our forecast, and they are refreshed every few minutes.

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