Election TrackerHow it worksFor newsrooms
EN

Home › Italy

Prime Minister of Italy?

12 outcomes · Closes

56% chance Giorgia Meloni

▲4 pts in 7 days

Probability

50%
Apr 2026Oct 2026

17% chance Elly Schlein

▲2 pts in 7 days

Probability

50%
Apr 2026Oct 2026

Use widget

OutcomeProbability24h change
Giorgia Meloni56%▲1 pt
Elly Schlein17%–
Giuseppe Conte13%–
Roberto Vannacci8%–
Silvia Salis5%–
Mario Draghi1%0 pts
Matteo Renzi1%–
Matteo Salvini1%–
Angelo Bonelli<1%–
Carlo Calenda<1%–
Antonio Tajani<1%–
Guido Crosetto<1%–
  1. Giorgia Meloni 56%
  2. Elly Schlein 17%
  3. Giuseppe Conte 13%
100%50%0%

Apr 2026Jul 2026Oct 2026

Key questions

Who is expected to win?

Giorgia Meloni, with a market-implied probability of 56%, ahead of Elly Schlein at 17%. Updated 2026-10-07 15:30 UTC.

What do these percentages mean?

The percentages on electiontracker.eu are market-implied probabilities: how likely each outcome is, as priced by prediction markets. They are not polls and not our forecast, and they are refreshed every few minutes.

Embed this widget

Paste this code into an article or page. The widget updates by itself: the market-implied probability before the vote, live on election night, then the official result.

Preview

More widgets and options for newsrooms →

Quote these figures

You are welcome to embed Election Tracker widgets and to quote individual figures, with credit and a link to electiontracker.eu. Copying the data in bulk (scraping, feeds, databases) or reselling it is not permitted. © Eastern Vikings OÜ.