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Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Winner 2026

16 outcomes · Voting day: (9 days ago)

Awaiting the official result. Douglas Ruas, with a market-implied probability of 98%, ahead of Eduardo Paes at <1%.

98% chance to win Douglas Ruas

▲4 pts in 7 days

Probability

50%
Jun 2026Oct 2026

<1% chance to win Eduardo Paes

▼3 pts in 7 days

Probability

50%
Jun 2026Oct 2026

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OutcomeProbability24h change
Douglas Ruas98%0 pts
Eduardo Paes<1%0 pts
Dr. Luizinho<1%–
Eduardo Pazuello<1%–
Tarcísio Motta<1%–
Anthony Garotinho<1%–
Wilson Witzel<1%–
André Português<1%–
Lindbergh Farias<1%–
Felipe Curi<1%–
Nicola Miccione<1%–
André Ceciliano<1%–
Chico Machado<1%–
Fred Pacheco<1%–
Rafa Luz<1%–
Colonel Busnello<1%–
  1. Douglas Ruas 98%
100%50%0%

Jun 2026Aug 2026Oct 2026

Key questions

When is the vote?

Sunday, October 4, 2026 (9 days ago).

Who is expected to win?

Douglas Ruas, with a market-implied probability of 98%, ahead of Eduardo Paes at <1%. Updated 2026-10-13 14:40 UTC.

What do these percentages mean?

Douglas Ruas 98%

The percentages on electiontracker.eu are market-implied probabilities: how likely each outcome is, as priced by prediction markets. They are not polls and not our forecast, and they are refreshed every few minutes.

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