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Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?

2 outcomes · Closes Nov 8, 2028

65% chance Democratic

Probability

50%

Jul 2025Oct 2026

35% chance Republican

Probability

50%

Jul 2025Oct 2026

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Outcome	Probability	24h change
Democratic	65%	–
Republican	35%	–

Democratic 65%
Republican 35%

100%50%0%

Jul 2025Feb 2026Oct 2026

Key questions

Who is expected to win?

Democratic, with a market-implied probability of 65%, ahead of Republican at 35%. Updated 2026-10-07 13:52 UTC.

What do these percentages mean?

The percentages on electiontracker.eu are market-implied probabilities: how likely each outcome is, as priced by prediction markets. They are not polls and not our forecast, and they are refreshed every few minutes.

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Paste this code into an article or page. The widget updates by itself: the market-implied probability before the vote, live on election night, then the official result.

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