Home › Switzerland › Switzerland’s November Referendum: What will pass?

Marriage taxation initiative – Switzerland’s November Referendum: What will pass?

Q: Marriage taxation initiative – Switzerland’s November Referendum: What will pass?

Market-implied probability: 12%, as of 2026-10-07 18:20 UTC. Source: public prediction-market data.

12%Probability

1h change: ▼1 pt
24h change: ▼1 pt
1w change: ▲2 pts
Voting day: Sun, Nov 29, 2026 (in 53 days)

Other outcomes in this event

Outcome	Probability	24h change
War Material amendment	62%	▼10 pts
VAT federal decree	59%	▼3 pts
Fireworks restriction initiative	19%	▼3 pts

All 4 outcomes

Embed this widget

Paste this code into an article or page. The widget updates by itself: the market-implied probability before the vote, live on election night, then the official result.

<iframe src="https://electiontracker.eu/embed/switzerland/november-referendum-what-will-pass-2026" title="Switzerland’s November Referendum: What will pass?" width="100%" height="400" style="border:0;max-width:640px" loading="lazy"></iframe>
<script src="https://electiontracker.eu/embed.js" async></script>

Preview

More widgets and options for newsrooms →