Switzerland’s November Referendum: What will pass?

4 outcomes · Voting day: Sun, Nov 29, 2026 (in 53 days) · Use widget

Outcome	Probability	24h change
War Material amendment	62%	▼10 pts
VAT federal decree	55%	▼7 pts
Fireworks restriction initiative	19%	▲2 pts
Marriage taxation initiative	12%	▼1 pt

Key questions

When is the vote?

Sunday, November 29, 2026 (in 53 days).

Who is expected to win?

War Material amendment, with a market-implied probability of 62%, ahead of VAT federal decree at 55%. Updated 2026-10-07 17:41 UTC.

What do these percentages mean?

The percentages on electiontracker.eu are market-implied probabilities: how likely each outcome is, as priced by prediction markets. They are not polls and not our forecast, and they are refreshed every few minutes.

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Switzerland’s November Referendum 2026: What will pass – War Material amendment, with a market-implied probability of 62%, ahead of VAT federal decree at 55%. Source: electiontracker.eu, October 7, 2026