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Chief Minister of the Isle of Man?

6 outcomes · Voting day: (13 days ago)

49% chance Chris Thomas

▲16 pts in 7 days

Probability

50%
Jul 30Oct 7

11% chance Alfred Cannan

▼14 pts in 7 days

Probability

50%
Jul 30Oct 7

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OutcomeProbability24h change
Chris Thomas49%▲1 pt
Alfred Cannan11%▼7 pts
Rob Callister7%▲3 pts
Jane Poole-Wilson6%▲2 pts
Alex Allinson2%0 pts
Lawrie Hooper1%0 pts
  1. Chris Thomas 49%
  2. Alfred Cannan 11%
  3. Rob Callister 7%
100%50%0%

Jul 30Sep 2Oct 7

Key questions

When is the vote?

Thursday, September 24, 2026 (13 days ago).

Who is expected to win?

Chris Thomas, with a market-implied probability of 49%, ahead of Alfred Cannan at 11%. Updated 2026-10-07 17:41 UTC.

What do these percentages mean?

The percentages on electiontracker.eu are market-implied probabilities: how likely each outcome is, as priced by prediction markets. They are not polls and not our forecast, and they are refreshed every few minutes.

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