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Guinea-Bissau Presidential Election 2025

12 outcomes · Voting day: (318 days ago) · Use widget

Awaiting the official result. Fernando Dias da Costa, with a market-implied probability of 16%, ahead of Umaro Sissoco Embaló at 14%.

OutcomeProbability24h change
Fernando Dias da Costa16%0 pts
Umaro Sissoco Embaló14%0 pts
José Mário Vaz2%–
João Bernardo Vieira2%–
Mamadu Iaia Djaló2%–
Baciro Djá2%–
Gabriel Fernando Indi2%–
Siga Batista1%0 pts
Mário da Silva Júnior1%–
Honório Augusto Lopes1%–
João de Deus Mendes1%–
Herculano Armando Bequinsa1%–

Key questions

When is the vote?

Sunday, November 23, 2025 (318 days ago).

Who is expected to win?

Fernando Dias da Costa, with a market-implied probability of 16%, ahead of Umaro Sissoco Embaló at 14%. Updated 2026-10-07 18:45 UTC.

What do these percentages mean?

The percentages on electiontracker.eu are market-implied probabilities: how likely each outcome is, as priced by prediction markets. They are not polls and not our forecast, and they are refreshed every few minutes.

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