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French Senate Election: 2nd Most Seats?

3 outcomes · Closes

81% chance Union Centriste

▲74 pts in 7 days

Probability

50%
Aug 20Oct 7

6% chance SER

▼86 pts in 7 days

Probability

50%
Aug 21Oct 7

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OutcomeProbability24h change
Union Centriste81%▼7 pts
SER6%▼2 pts
Les Républicains1%–
  1. Union Centriste 81%
  2. SER 6%
100%50%0%

Aug 20Sep 13Oct 7

Key questions

Who is expected to win?

Union Centriste, with a market-implied probability of 81%, ahead of SER at 6%. Updated 2026-10-07 16:36 UTC.

What do these percentages mean?

The percentages on electiontracker.eu are market-implied probabilities: how likely each outcome is, as priced by prediction markets. They are not polls and not our forecast, and they are refreshed every few minutes.

Related races

  1. French Senate Election: Most Seats? Les Républicains 99%
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