President of the National Rally in 2026?

Q: Who is expected to win?

Jordan Bardella, with a market-implied probability of 98%, ahead of Jean-Philippe Tanguy at 1%. Updated 2026-10-07 13:52 UTC.

Q: What do these percentages mean?

The percentages on electiontracker.eu are market-implied probabilities: how likely each outcome is, as priced by prediction markets. They are not polls and not our forecast, and they are refreshed every few minutes.

8 outcomes · Closes Jan 1, 2027

98% chance to win Jordan Bardella

▲5 pts in 7 days

Probability

50%

Jul 10Oct 7

1% chance to win Jean-Philippe Tanguy

0 pts in 7 days

Probability

50%

Jul 2026Oct 2026

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Outcome	Probability	24h change
Jordan Bardella	98%	–
Jean-Philippe Tanguy	1%	0 pts
Marine Le Pen	1%	–
David Rachline	1%	–
Louis Aliot	1%	0 pts
Sébastien Chenu	1%	0 pts
Hélène Laporte	1%	–
Laurent Jacobelli	<1%	0 pts

Jordan Bardella 98%

100%50%0%

Jul 2026Aug 2026Oct 2026

Key questions

Who is expected to win?

Jordan Bardella, with a market-implied probability of 98%, ahead of Jean-Philippe Tanguy at 1%. Updated 2026-10-07 13:52 UTC.

What do these percentages mean?

The percentages on electiontracker.eu are market-implied probabilities: how likely each outcome is, as priced by prediction markets. They are not polls and not our forecast, and they are refreshed every few minutes.

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Paste this code into an article or page. The widget updates by itself: the market-implied probability before the vote, live on election night, then the official result.

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<script src="https://electiontracker.eu/embed.js" async></script>

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