Which parties will be in the next Israeli government?
15 outcomes · Closes · Use widget
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change |
|---|---|---|
| Yashar | 58% | ▼1 pt |
| Yisrael Beiteinu | 53% | ▼2 pts |
| Together | 53% | ▲3 pts |
| The Democrats | 52% | ▼4 pts |
| Otzma Yehudit | 45% | ▲9 pts |
| Likud | 42% | – |
| Shas | 39% | ▲2 pts |
| United Torah Judaism | 38% | ▼3 pts |
| RZP-Zehut | 34% | – |
| Amcha Yisrael | 32% | ▼6 pts |
| New Economic Party / The Reservists | 27% | – |
| Ra'am | 18% | – |
| Noam | 6% | 0 pts |
| Blue and White | 6% | – |
| Joint List | 4% | 0 pts |
- Yisrael Beiteinu 53%
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Sep 22Sep 28Oct 4
Key questions
Who is expected to win?
Yashar, with a market-implied probability of 58%, ahead of Yisrael Beiteinu at 53%.
What do these percentages mean?
They are market-implied probabilities: how likely each outcome is, as priced by prediction markets. They are not polls and not our forecast, and they are refreshed every few minutes.