New Zealand elections 2026: predictions

Sat 7 Nov

1. Which coalition will form the next New Zealand government?

   National + ACT + NZF 46%

   

   Other outcomes in this event

   1. Labour + Green 27%
   2. Labour + Green + Maori 17%
   3. Other 6%
   4. Labour + Green + NZF 1%
   5. Labour + Maori 1%
   6. National + Labour 1%
   7. National + ACT 1%
   8. National + NZF 1%

   +9 below 1%

   All 18 outcomes

2. New Zealand legislative election winner?

   Labour Party 56%

   

   56% Labour Party

   Probability

   50%

   

   44% National Party

   ▼1 pt in 7 days

   Probability

   50%

   All 6 outcomes

3. Next Prime Minister of New Zealand?

   Christopher Luxon 54% 24h change: ▲1

   

   54% Christopher Luxon

   ▼4 pts in 7 days

   Probability

   50%

   

   46% Chris Hipkins

   ▲5 pts in 7 days

   Probability

   50%

   All 7 outcomes