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Election Tracker

Market-implied probabilities for elections around the world. Election widgets for newsrooms →

Canada elections 2026: predictions

Mon 5 Oct

Next Premier of Quebec
Paul St-Pierre Plamondon 95%
Other outcomes in this event
1. Charles Milliard 2%
2. Christine Fréchette 1%
+4 below 1%
All 7 outcomes
Quebec General Election Winner
PQ 96% 24h change: ▲1
Other outcomes in this event
1. PLQ 2%
+4 below 1%
All 6 outcomes

Sat 17 Oct

Vancouver Mayoral Election Winner
Pete Fry 67% 24h change: ▲4
67% Pete Fry
▲2 pts in 7 days
Probability
50%
Apr 2026Oct 2026
33% Ken Sim
▲3 pts in 7 days
Probability
50%
Apr 2026Oct 2026
All 13 outcomes
Surrey Mayoral Election
Brenda Locke 71% 24h change: ▲5
71% Brenda Locke
▼5 pts in 7 days
Probability
50%
Aug 9Oct 2
23% Linda Annis
▲5 pts in 7 days
Probability
50%
Aug 8Oct 2
All 6 outcomes
Saanich, BC Mayoral Election Winner
Zac de Vries 58% 24h change: ▲2
Other outcomes in this event
1. Karen Harper 29%
2. Rishi Sharma 12%
All 3 outcomes

Sat 24 Oct

Next Premier of British Columbia
Lorne Doerkson 60% 24h change: ▲10
60% Lorne Doerkson
▲9 pts in 7 days
Probability
50%
Sep 25Oct 2
40% David Eby
▼7 pts in 7 days
Probability
50%
Sep 24Oct 2
All 5 outcomes

Mon 26 Oct

Toronto Mayoral Election Winner
Olivia Chow 87% 24h change: ▼1
Other outcomes in this event
1. Brad Bradford 12%
+6 below 1%
All 8 outcomes
Oshawa, ON Mayoral Election Winner
Tito-Dante Marimpietri 51% 24h change: ▼3
Other outcomes in this event
1. Jim Lee 20%
2. Derek Giberson 4%
All 3 outcomes
Ottawa Mayoral Election Winner
Mark Sutcliffe 82% 24h change: ▲1
Other outcomes in this event
1. Jeff Leiper 8%
2. Alex Lawson 4%
3. Neil Saravanamuttoo 1%
+1 below 1%
All 5 outcomes

Wed 28 Oct

Winnipeg Mayoral Election
Scott Gillingham 62% 24h change: ▲11
Other outcomes in this event
1. Kevin Klein 19%
2. Mazher Alam 8%
3. Don Woodstock 3%
+2 below 1%
All 6 outcomes

Mar 31 – Apr 29, 2027