Brazil elections 2026: predictions

Sun 4 Oct

1. Brazil Presidential Election

   Flávio Bolsonaro 57% 24h change: ▼5

   

   57% Flávio Bolsonaro

   ▲1 pt in 7 days

   Probability

   50%

   

   43% Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

   ▼1 pt in 7 days

   Probability

   50%

   All 19 outcomes

2. Brazil Presidential Election First Round Winner

   Lula 75% 24h change: ▲3

   

   75% Lula

   ▲1 pt in 7 days

   Probability

   50%

   

   26% Flavio Bolsonaro

   ▼1 pt in 7 days

   Probability

   50%

   All 6 outcomes

   By region

   1. Minas Gerais Lula 76%
   2. Tocantins Lula 58%
   3. Rio Grande do Sul Flavio Bolsonaro 97%
   4. Amazonas Lula 84%
   5. Federal District Flavio Bolsonaro 94%
   6. Pará Lula 97%
   7. Rio de Janeiro Flavio Bolsonaro 98%
   8. Paraíba Lula 99%
   9. Goiás Flavio Bolsonaro 95%
   10. São Paulo Flavio Bolsonaro 98%
3. Brazil Chamber of Deputies Election Winner

   Partido Liberal (PL) 67% 24h change: ▲1

   

   67% Partido Liberal (PL)

   Probability

   50%

   

   33% UPB

   ▼1 pt in 7 days

   Probability

   50%

   All 15 outcomes

4. Next Brazil Senate Election: Most Seats Won

   Partido Liberal (PL) 95%

   

   Other outcomes in this event

   1. Movimento Democrático Brasileiro (MDB) 2%
   2. UNIÃO 1%
   3. Partido dos Trabalhadores (PT) 1%
   4. Partido Socialista Brasileiro (PSB) 1%
   5. PODEMOS 1%
   6. REPUBLICANOS 1%

   +5 below 1%

   All 12 outcomes

5. Next Brazil Senate Election: Most Seats Held

   Partido Liberal (PL) 96% 24h change: ▲2

   

   Other outcomes in this event

   1. Movimento Democrático Brasileiro (MDB) 3%
   2. Partido dos Trabalhadores (PT) 1%

   +8 below 1%

   All 11 outcomes