Taiwan elections 2026: predictions

Sat 28 Nov

1. Taipei Mayor Election Winner

   Chiang Wan-an 83% 24h change: ▲1

   

   83% Chiang Wan-an

   ▲2 pts in 7 days

   Probability

   50%

   

   18% Puma Shen

   ▼1 pt in 7 days

   Probability

   50%

   All 3 outcomes

2. New Taipei Mayor Election Winner

   Lee Shu-chuan 67% 24h change: ▲2

   

   67% Lee Shu-chuan

   ▼8 pts in 7 days

   Probability

   50%

   

   35% Su Chiao-hui

   ▲10 pts in 7 days

   Probability

   50%

   All 3 outcomes

3. 2026 Taiwanese Local Elections: Party Winner

   Kuomintang (KMT) 91%

   

   Other outcomes in this event

   1. Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) 9%

   +1 below 1%

   All 3 outcomes

4. Hsinchu City Mayor Election Winner

   Ann Kao 94%