Brazil Presidential Election First Round 2026: 1st Place in Pará
13 outcomes · Voting day: (in 2 days)
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change |
|---|---|---|
| Lula | 96% | 0 pts |
| Flavio Bolsonaro | 3% | ▼1 pt |
| Clariana Barao | <1% | – |
| Edmilson Costa | <1% | – |
| Escritor Augusto Cury | <1% | – |
| Hertz Dias | <1% | – |
| Pablo Marçal | <1% | – |
| Renan Santos | <1% | – |
| Ronaldo Caiado | <1% | – |
| Rui Costa Pimenta | <1% | – |
| Samara | <1% | – |
| Veterinário Wilson Grassi | <1% | – |
| Zema | <1% | – |
- Lula 96%
100%50%0%
Aug 18Sep 9Oct 2
Key questions
When is the vote?
Sunday, October 4, 2026 (in 2 days).
Who is expected to win?
Lula, with a market-implied probability of 96%, ahead of Flavio Bolsonaro at 3%.
What do these percentages mean?
They are market-implied probabilities: how likely each outcome is, as priced by prediction markets. They are not polls and not our forecast, and they are refreshed every few minutes.