Next Prime Minister of New Zealand?
7 outcomes · Closes
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change |
|---|---|---|
| Christopher Luxon | 56% | – |
| Chris Hipkins | 41% | – |
| David Seymour | 2% | ▲1% |
| Chlöe Swarbrick | 1% | – |
| Carmel Sepuloni | 1% | 0% |
| Winston Peters | 1% | – |
| Nicola Willis | <1% | 0% |
Resolution criteria
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 General elections.
To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the Governor-General as Prime Minister of New Zealand. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of New Zealand; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.