Friday, January 1, 2027

1. Los Angeles Mayoral Election

   Nithya Raman 58%

   

   58% Nithya Raman

   ▲21% in 7 days

   Probability

   50%

   

   44% Karen Bass

   ▼19% in 7 days

   Probability

   50%

   All 2 outcomes

2. Next Romania PM appointed by…?

   December 31 39%

   Other outcomes in this event

   1. September 30 11%

   All 2 outcomes

3. Kraków Mayoral Election Winner

   Łukasz Gibała 87%

   

   Other outcomes in this event

   1. Monika Piątkowska 14%
   2. Michał Drewnicki 1%
   3. Aleksandra Owca <1%
   4. Grażyna Zofia Świat <1%
   5. Daria Gosek-Popiołek <1%
   6. Marianna Schreiber <1%
   7. Bartosz Bocheńczak <1%
   8. Marian Banaś <1%
   9. Paweł Śliz <1%
   10. Sławomir Pietrzyk <1%
   11. Michał Klimek <1%

   All 12 outcomes

4. Who will announce Presidential run before 2027?

   Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 16%

   

   Other outcomes in this event

   1. Gavin Newsom 14%
   2. Pete Buttigieg 13%
   3. Raphael Warnock 10%
   4. Stephen A. Smith 8%
   5. Glenn Youngkin 7%
   6. J.D. Vance 7%
   7. Ron DeSantis 7%
   8. Cory Booker 7%
   9. Nikki Haley 7%
   10. Rahm Emanuel 7%
   11. Don Lemon 7%
   12. J.B. Pritzker 7%
   13. Hunter Biden 6%
   14. Matt Gaetz 6%
   15. Kamala Harris 6%
   16. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 6%
   17. George Clooney 6%
   18. Gretchen Whitmer 6%
   19. Marjorie Taylor Greene 6%
   20. Donald Trump 5%
   21. Elise Stefanik 5%
   22. Tim Walz 5%
   23. Josh Shapiro 5%
   24. Ted Cruz 5%
   25. Beto O’Rourke 5%
   26. Mark Kelly 5%
   27. Liz Cheney 5%
   28. Vivek Ramaswamy 5%
   29. Brian Kemp 5%
   30. Rand Paul 5%
   31. Donald Trump Jr. 4%
   32. Jon Stewart 4%
   33. Gina Raimondo 4%
   34. Kristi Noem 4%
   35. Oprah Winfrey 4%
   36. Greg Abbott 4%
   37. Steve Bannon 4%
   38. Erika Kirk 4%
   39. Marco Rubio 4%
   40. Ivanka Trump 4%
   41. Tucker Carlson 4%
   42. Wes Moore 3%
   43. Zohran Mamdani 3%
   44. Michelle Obama 3%
   45. John Fetterman 3%
   46. John Thune 3%
   47. Elon Musk 3%
   48. Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson 3%
   49. Jon Ossoff 3%
   50. Tom Brady 3%
   51. Bernie Sanders 3%
   52. Katie Britt 3%
   53. Mike Pence 3%
   54. LeBron James 2%
   55. Barack Obama 2%
   56. Josh Hawley 2%
   57. MrBeast 2%
   58. Candace Owens 2%
   59. Kim Kardashian 2%
   60. Jared Polis 2%
   61. Phil Murphy 2%
   62. Roy Cooper 2%
   63. Tulsi Gabbard 2%
   64. Andrew Yang 2%
   65. Byron Donalds 1%
   66. Andy Beshear 1%
   67. Mark Cuban 1%
   68. Chelsea Clinton 1%
   69. Hillary Clinton 1%
   70. Sarah Huckabee Sanders 1%

   All 71 outcomes

5. Next President of Estonia?

   Ülle Madise 97%

   

   Other outcomes in this event

   1. Indrek Laul 1%
   2. Hannes Hanso <1%
   3. Riho Ühtegi <1%
   4. Mart Helme <1%
   5. Maive Rute <1%
   6. Jonatan Vseviov <1%
   7. Riina Kionka <1%

   All 8 outcomes

6. Which parties will be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government?

   AfD 56%

   

   Other outcomes in this event

   1. Grüne 28%
   2. SPD 19%
   3. CDU 17%
   4. BSW 10%
   5. Linke 2%
   6. FDP 2%

   All 7 outcomes

7. Guinea-Bissau Presidential Election

   Umaro Sissoco Embaló 11%

   

   Other outcomes in this event

   1. Fernando Dias da Costa 11%
   2. José Mário Vaz 3%
   3. Baciro Djá 2%
   4. João Bernardo Vieira 2%
   5. Siga Batista 2%
   6. Mamadu Iaia Djaló 2%
   7. Gabriel Fernando Indi 2%
   8. Mário da Silva Júnior 1%
   9. João de Deus Mendes 1%
   10. Honório Augusto Lopes 1%
   11. Herculano Armando Bequinsa 1%

   All 12 outcomes

8. French election called by...?

   December 31, 2026 6%

   
9. Guinea-Bissau National People's Assembly Election Winner

   FREPASNA 3%

   

Tuesday, January 5, 2027

1. Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

   Democrats Sweep 62%

   

   62% Democrats Sweep

   ▲2% in 7 days

   Probability

   50%

   

   32% R Senate, D House

   ▲1% in 7 days

   Probability

   50%

   All 5 outcomes

2. Which party will win the House in 2026?

   Democratic Party 93%

   

   Other outcomes in this event

   1. Republican Party 8%

   All 2 outcomes