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Will SPD be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government?
19%Probability
- 1h change
- –
- 24h change
- ▲5%
- 1w change
- ▲10%
- Closes
Other outcomes in this event
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change |
|---|---|---|
| AfD | 56% | ▲1% |
| Grüne | 28% | ▲5% |
| CDU | 17% | ▲2% |
| BSW | 10% | ▲1% |
| Linke | 2% | ▼4% |
| FDP | 2% | 0% |
Resolution criteria
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Sachsen-Anhalt state government formed after the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Sachsen-Anhalt state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Landtag elects the Minister-President. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Minister, including the Minister-President. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Minister post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the State Government of Sachsen-Anhalt and the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).