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Will Tucker Carlson announce a presidential run before 2028?
16%Probability
- 1h change
- –
- 24h change
- ▲1%
- 1w change
- ▼2%
- Closes
Other outcomes in this event
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change |
|---|---|---|
| Andy Beshear | 89% | 0% |
| Pete Buttigieg | 85% | – |
| Rahm Emanuel | 69% | ▲1% |
| Ron DeSantis | 67% | ▲1% |
| J.D. Vance | 66% | ▼3% |
| Andrew Yang | 66% | – |
| Gavin Newsom | 65% | – |
| Ted Cruz | 65% | ▼1% |
| Jon Ossoff | 61% | ▲4% |
| Mark Kelly | 59% | ▲1% |
| J.B. Pritzker | 59% | – |
| Cory Booker | 58% | ▲1% |
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual officially announces that they are running for U.S. President in the 2028 United States presidential election by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement by the listed individual will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually filed a nomination to run, or whether they actually file a nomination to run in the future.
A qualifying announcement must be explicit and unambiguous. Conditional statements, or statements that are clearly sarcastic, made in jest, or immediately clarified as not being genuine will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individual (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.