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Who will announce Presidential run before 2028?

66 outcomes · Closes

OutcomeProbability24h change
Andy Beshear89%▲1%
Pete Buttigieg85%–
Rahm Emanuel69%▲1%
Ron DeSantis67%–
Andrew Yang66%–
J.D. Vance65%▼4%
Gavin Newsom65%–
Ted Cruz65%▼1%
Jon Ossoff60%▲3%
Mark Kelly59%▲1%
J.B. Pritzker59%–
Cory Booker57%–
Josh Shapiro57%▲4%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez55%▲2%
Wes Moore53%▼1%
Kamala Harris48%–
Rand Paul48%▲5%
Raphael Warnock39%▲1%
Josh Hawley38%▼2%
Jared Polis37%–
Marco Rubio35%–
Glenn Youngkin33%–
Gretchen Whitmer31%▲1%
Marjorie Taylor Greene29%–
Brian Kemp27%–
Hunter Biden26%–
Nikki Haley26%–
John Fetterman26%–
Byron Donalds24%–
Vivek Ramaswamy23%–
Phil Murphy23%–
Elise Stefanik22%▼2%
Don Lemon21%–
Gina Raimondo21%▼1%
Donald Trump Jr.20%–
Stephen A. Smith19%–
Kim Kardashian19%–
Mark Cuban19%–
Tulsi Gabbard18%–
Jon Stewart18%–
Steve Bannon18%–
George Clooney17%–
John Thune16%–
Roy Cooper16%▼1%
Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson16%–
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.16%–
Tucker Carlson16%▲1%
Elon Musk15%–
Michelle Obama14%▼1%
Mike Pence14%–
Tom Brady14%–
Liz Cheney14%–
Oprah Winfrey13%–
Donald Trump13%–
Bernie Sanders12%–
Candace Owens11%–
Chelsea Clinton11%–
Beto O’Rourke11%–
LeBron James11%–
Zohran Mamdani11%–
Tim Walz10%–
Erika Kirk9%–
MrBeast9%–
Ivanka Trump5%0%
Hillary Clinton4%–
Barack Obama2%–

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual officially announces that they are running for U.S. President in the 2028 United States presidential election by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement by the listed individual will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually filed a nomination to run, or whether they actually file a nomination to run in the future.

A qualifying announcement must be explicit and unambiguous. Conditional statements, or statements that are clearly sarcastic, made in jest, or immediately clarified as not being genuine will not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individual (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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