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Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?

97%Probability

1h change
–
24h change
▲1%
1w change
▼1%
Closes
Last 7 days · low 95% · high 98%

Other outcomes in this event

OutcomeProbability24h change
Demeke Mekonnen1%0%
Gedion Timothewos1%–
Shimelis Abdisa1%0%
Belete Molla1%0%
Alesa Mengesha1%–
Berhanu Nega<1%0%
Adanech Abiebie<1%–

All 8 outcomes

Resolution criteria

General elections are scheduled to be held in Ethiopia on June 1, 2026.

This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Ethiopia following the 2026 General elections.

To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Ethiopia. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Ethiopia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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