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Will Union Party win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?
<1%Probability
- 1h change
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- 24h change
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- 1w change
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- Closes
Other outcomes in this event
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change |
|---|---|---|
| Amal Movement (Amal) | 1% | – |
| Lebanese Forces (LF) | <1% | 0% |
| Hezbollah (Hezb) | <1% | – |
| Lana – Social Democratic Party (Lana) | <1% | – |
| Arab Socialist Ba'ath Party in Lebanon (Ba'ath) | <1% | – |
| Armenian Revolutionary Federation (ARF) | <1% | – |
| Dignity Movement (DM) | <1% | – |
| Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) | <1% | – |
| Independence Movement (IM) | <1% | – |
| Islamic Charitable Projects Association (ICPA) | <1% | – |
| Islamic Group (IG) | <1% | – |
| Kataeb Party (Kataeb) | <1% | – |
Resolution criteria
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.