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Will the Citizens' Coalition (MED) be in the next Swedish government?
1%Probability
- 1h change
- –
- 24h change
- 0%
- 1w change
- 0%
- Closes
Other outcomes in this event
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change |
|---|---|---|
| Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) | 85% | ▲1% |
| Green Party (MP) | 62% | ▲9% |
| Centre Party (C) | 52% | ▲9% |
| Left Party (V) | 16% | ▲4% |
| Moderate Party (M) | 13% | ▼2% |
| Christian Democrats (KD) | 13% | – |
| Liberals (L) | 12% | – |
| Sweden Democrats (SD) | 3% | 0% |
Resolution criteria
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Swedish government formed after the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Swedish government following the 2026 parliamentary elections is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
A party will only be considered part of the coalition if it provides at least one cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a cabinet post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of Sweden and the Riksdag.