Home › Europe › Which parties will be part of the next government of Romania?
Will the Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR) be included in the next Romanian government?
25%Probability
- 1h change
- 0%
- 24h change
- 0%
- 1w change
- ▼11%
- Closes
Other outcomes in this event
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change |
|---|---|---|
| USR | 66% | ▼21% |
| PSD | 60% | ▼11% |
| UDMR | 59% | ▲1% |
| PNL | 44% | ▼2% |
| SOS | 3% | 0% |
Resolution criteria
The sitting government of Romania was ousted through a vote of no-confidence on May 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the next Romanian governing coalition formed after market creation. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the first new Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government.
A party will only be considered part of the government if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the composition of the next governing coalition is not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of Romania.