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Will Sinawo Thambo be the next mayor of Nelson Mandela Bay?
6%Probability
- 1h change
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- 24h change
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- 1w change
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- Closes
Other outcomes in this event
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change |
|---|---|---|
| Retief Odendaal | 39% | ▲2% |
| Andile Lungisa | 21% | ▲1% |
| Xolani Vela | 9% | ▲5% |
| Babalwa Lobishe | 8% | 0% |
| Wandisile Jikeka | 4% | 0% |
| Siva Pillay | 2% | 0% |
| Bulelwa Mafaya | <1% | 0% |
| Ntombi Nama | <1% | – |
Resolution criteria
Municipal elections are currently scheduled to be held in South Africa on November 4, 2026. Nelson Mandela Bay’s mayor will be elected by the newly constituted council at its inaugural meeting, which is expected to be held within 14 days of the municipal election, by November 18, 2026.
This market will resolve to the first individual who officially assumes the role of Mayor of Nelson Mandela Bay following the 2026 South African municipal elections.
A qualifying individual must be elected mayor by the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipal Council. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of South Africa, including the Electoral Commission of South Africa (https://elections.org.za); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.